But lucky for me this year's Academy Awards are shaping up to be one of the most predictable galas in years with certain films (cough, cough ... "Avatar" ... cough, cough) all but assured of taking home their fair share of trophies.
But some questions do remain. Will Jeff Bridges continue his award season dominance of the Best Actor category? Can anyone knock off the big blue powerhouse that is James Cameron's "Avatar"? Will the lesser knowns like "In the Loop" (for Best Adapted Screenplay) or "The Secret of Kells" (for Best Animated Feature) be able to make any Oscar noise? Tune in at 8 tonight (ABC, Ch. 9) to see how my picks measure up.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Burma VJ"
"The Cove"
"Food, Inc."
"The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers"
"Which Way Home"
Should and Will Win: Rarely does a film change the way you think about a subject. Even more rare that the subject is something like the way you eat. "Food, Inc." is a surprising documentary both in its subject matter and its simplicity. No way it wasn't the best documentary of the past year.
"Burma VJ"
"The Cove"
"Food, Inc."
"The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers"
"Which Way Home"
Should and Will Win: Rarely does a film change the way you think about a subject. Even more rare that the subject is something like the way you eat. "Food, Inc." is a surprising documentary both in its subject matter and its simplicity. No way it wasn't the best documentary of the past year.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Almost There" from "The Princess and the Frog," Randy Newman
"Down in New Orleans" from "The Princess and the Frog," Randy Newman
"Loin de Paname" from "Paris 36," Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas
"Take It All" from "Nine," Maury Yeston
"The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from "Crazy Heart," Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
Should Win: Is there a better guy in the business for this category than Randy Newman? His two nominations this year represent numbers 17 and 18 for him with only one win to show for it (back in 2002 for "Monster's, Inc"). C'mon Academy, give the guy a break.
Will Win: There's a lot of Oscar love out there for "Crazy Heart." Plus, it's a film about music. Bingham and Burnett take home an award.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Avatar," James Horner
"Fantastic Mr. Fox," Alexandre Desplat
"The Hurt Locker," Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
"Sherlock Holmes," Hans Zimmer
"Up," Michael Giacchino
Should and Will Win: "Up" had one of the more exciting and touching scores of any film I've seen this year. Add that to a Golden Globe win and "Lost" composer Giacchino should be a first-time Oscar winner.
"The Hurt Locker," Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
"Sherlock Holmes," Hans Zimmer
"Up," Michael Giacchino
Should and Will Win: "Up" had one of the more exciting and touching scores of any film I've seen this year. Add that to a Golden Globe win and "Lost" composer Giacchino should be a first-time Oscar winner.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
"Coraline""Fantastic Mr. Fox"
"The Princess and the Frog"
"The Secret of Kells"
"Up"
Should Win: As much as I loved "Up," I have to admit I wouldn't be entirely upset to see "Coraline" win this category. The dark film is one of the most beautifully animated films I've seen even without the optional 3-D version.
Will Win: Fanboy's film of the year was "Up." While I'd much rather see it get some attention with its surprising Best Picture nod, a win in this category will have to do.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal, "The Hurt Locker"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, "The Messenger"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "A Serious Man"
Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy, "Up"
Should and Will Win: While garnering a few nominations, "Inglourious Basterds" will find itself skunked in most categories ... except this one. The film was pure brilliance bringing together vastly different characters and story lines through wonderfully choreographed scenes and dialogue that only Tarantino could write.
Mark Boal, "The Hurt Locker"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, "The Messenger"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "A Serious Man"
Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy, "Up"
Should and Will Win: While garnering a few nominations, "Inglourious Basterds" will find itself skunked in most categories ... except this one. The film was pure brilliance bringing together vastly different characters and story lines through wonderfully choreographed scenes and dialogue that only Tarantino could write.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, "District 9"Nick Hornby, "An Education"
Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, "In the Loop"
Geoffrey Fletcher, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, "Up in the Air"
Should Win: I am begging the Academy to award some love to the sci-fi genre this year. No film is more deserving than Blomkamp and Tatchell's tale of alien drama, "District 9." That said ...
Will Win: "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire."
BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron, "Avatar"Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
Lee Daniels, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker" was one of the most gripping character-driven films of this or any other year. Jeremy Renner owes his Best Actor nomination to her for her mesmerizing style and sense of drama. Tarantino put out what could be his very best film in "Basterds."
Will Win: James Cameron did what no other on this list has done. Cameron didn't just direct "Avatar." He created an entirely new style of special effects and may have revolutionized filmmaking in the process. That more than likely earns an Oscar.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz, "Nine"
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Should Win: No one. I hate to sound like a downer but the actress categories are very weak this year. Of this group, I'd pull for Maggie Gyllenhaal just because I feel like it.
Will Win: Mo'Nique has won every award put in front of her with her role as an abusive mother. Barring a major upset, she'll take home this one, too.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
Should and Will Win: As far as I'm concerned, Christoph Waltz as Col. Hans Landa in "Basterds" gave the best performance of anyone nominated in any category this year. This is Fanboy's Lock of the Night.
Matt Damon, "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
Should and Will Win: As far as I'm concerned, Christoph Waltz as Col. Hans Landa in "Basterds" gave the best performance of anyone nominated in any category this year. This is Fanboy's Lock of the Night.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"
Should Win: Again, a very weak category. But at least we've got Oscar stalwart Streep to root for. She's perhaps the best actress of the last 50 years and her turn as cooking icon Julia Child was marvelous.
Will Win: I'm thinking this is the category where Oscar voters say "Hey average film watcher, we don't just give awards to critical darlings. We care about you, too." What does that mean? It means Sandra Bullock somehow wins an Oscar.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"
Should Win: My heart tells me that Jeremy Renner truly deserves the award for his portrayal of Sgt. William James, a bomb disposal expert with a death wish in "The Hurt Locker."
Will Win: Jeff Bridges is on an Oscar tear. His fifth nomination pays off as his performance as worn down musician Bad Blake finally earns him the Oscar he deserved for "The Big Lebowski."
BEST PICTURE
"Avatar"
"The Blind Side"
"District 9"
"An Education"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"
Should Win: My initial response is "anything but 'Avatar.'" The reviews of the film hail it as a visual masterpiece but no one mentions characters, acting or story. When asked, most admit it's just so-so. So give "Avatar" its visual accolades but let great all around films like "Basterds" or "The Hurt Locker" win the prize. (I'm pulling for "Basterds.")
Will Win: See my above argument? Forget it. "Avatar" wins.
